Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 84176.467476 88823.743999 93467.037781 98451.161492 103646.323084 108898.463061 114606.154171
2024-12-15 77195.602869 84365.216523 91725.939634 99837.289863 108514.364169 117507.777051 127523.033799
2024-12-22 71072.016916 79885.599397 89131.839262 99533.755967 110887.970157 122883.620950 136492.964940
2024-12-29 67598.668995 77767.530550 88627.035697 101051.441325 114836.181654 129624.671812 146652.176344
2025-01-05 64421.682641 75648.912781 87827.638768 101967.668769 117878.805550 135174.907906 155342.304016
2025-01-12 61190.186796 73221.443845 86460.424320 102038.100312 119791.590647 139319.755760 162347.054165
2025-01-19 58225.737351 70906.589257 85046.657500 101890.472619 121311.971966 142905.756813 168629.077929
2025-01-26 56780.238915 70232.377473 85409.741255 103686.070047 124975.491309 148868.850042 177583.628413
2025-02-02 55473.738742 69628.604707 85775.534765 105416.623418 128513.333585 154660.037465 186338.551147
2025-02-09 53763.237447 68454.436129 85393.850141 106201.521654 130894.509327 159081.353418 193497.499111
2025-02-16 51695.137304 66759.636714 84314.136531 106085.411808 132153.411161 162151.111563 199054.577075
2025-02-23 50123.291854 65596.877075 83807.700505 106596.198306 134109.171210 166007.097166 205520.974162
2025-03-02 48335.034641 64131.782988 82913.664278 106633.576847 135514.220599 169253.062937 211341.665653
2025-03-09 47319.896013 63586.502590 83109.649483 107974.122547 138482.904672 174370.768341 219425.830379
2025-03-16 45524.970351 61998.189623 81965.617100 107620.948544 139354.394436 176951.560845 224464.289558
2025-03-23 44797.566131 61728.126886 82428.217517 109230.021889 142614.030296 182413.076751 232994.888404
2025-03-30 43817.049661 61094.225569 82402.241449 110203.770366 145074.804596 186903.559387 240364.658529
2025-04-06 42476.551489 59948.389816 81689.090164 110278.410355 146392.323183 189983.492985 246014.736751
2025-04-13 41103.349415 58714.465975 80822.675608 110121.219404 147389.715992 192651.053899 251153.420140
2025-04-20 40718.211508 58763.654119 81587.167376 112032.078345 150986.528621 198539.363559 260290.299423
2025-04-27 40326.660866 58785.355751 82302.676102 113873.347711 154498.698012 204338.713109 269351.174891
2025-05-04 39529.223949 58235.428594 82251.859727 114708.340910 156722.615274 208534.675069 276435.999659
2025-05-11 38370.664261 57162.465731 81484.567577 114584.824979 157699.528287 211156.870085 281555.490879